Scenarios for Tomorrow
IMPROVING AND ENHANCING SCENARIO PLANNING
Futures Thinking
This book presents a contemporary view of the approaches and theories that inform global scenario planning and foresight science, providing practical recommendations for improving scenario development processes. Its insights bridge the gap between last century’s foundations and this century’s innovations.
Megan M. Crawford and George Wright bring together a global team of expert authors to illustrate the development of scenario storylines and the role of a facilitator in team-based activities and processes. They detail practical scenario applications, provide guidance for practice improvement, and analyse the use of scenario thinking in strategic choice. Together, the authors show the path of scenario development, from foundation to validation, and explore new and broader views of futures thinking, scenario methodologies, innovative developments, and practical applications that reflect the evolution of the field.
With guidance for practitioners and support for academics across the fields of futures and foresight science, Improving and Enhancing Scenario Planning is a valuable resource. Students of business, management, innovation and technology will also find this book beneficial.
THE PROJECT
A Global Approach
22
CHAPTERS
44
CONTRIBUTORS
14
COUNTRIES
Meet the Editors
Megan M Crawford is a Lecturer at The Business School, Edinburgh Napier University, Edinburgh, Scotland. Megan works in data science and scenario planning. Her research looks into how individuals and organisations frame and make decisions about the future (biases), structured group techniques (optimisation), and strategy development (impact), with a specialisation in AI integration. Megan is PI of the Futures and Analytics Research (FAR) Lab, which supports advancements for historically underrepresented groups, and Research Lead with the Centre for Business Innovations and Sustainable Solutions (CBISS).
George Wright, Management Science, Strathclyde Business School, University of Strathclyde. George has accumulated about 22,000 citations. He provided advice on developing energy transition scenarios to SSE Plc and Wood Group Plc. He is a current co-investigator on research grants from BAE Systems, the AHRC, and the NERC. In all these activities, his focus is on improving futures and foresight capabilities. His scenario development methods involve systems dynamics. He is Editor-in-Chief of the new-start Wiley journal, Futures & Foresight Science.
Reviews
This book presents diverse voices from academia and practice – with a mix of cultures, disciplines and countries – that challenge our mostly Western views of scenario planning. Its twenty-two chapters range from methodological chaos and limits of rationality to decolonizing the future and scenarios about AI and LGBTQ rights. The chapters combined scan scenario planning’s periphery broadly and point to promising developments for the field.
– Paul J.H. Schoemaker, Wharton School, USA, and author of Advanced Introduction to Scenario Planning
With a diverse range of authors, the range of topics covered in this book is unusually wide, going from “sorting out the methodological chaos of scenario planning” to the practicalities of how to do it. The book is, in my view, the best guide for two major audiences; the first is for those who have been involved in the field of scenario planning, for whom the book provides a comprehensive framework to deepen their understanding and evaluate the quality of scenarios and their effects. The second audience is those who are new to scenario planning and wish to learn about the field, for whom the book provides a wide range and invaluable source of knowledge and understanding.
– Ronald Bradfield, University of Strathclyde, UAE and Europe
Scenario planning, as an anticipatory practice, is an important and ever-developing field of professional activity. The knowledge forming the basis for methods used continues to evolve through research and reflective practice, giving the field greater robustness. The impressive contributions to this book provide a source of well researched contemporary thinking and knowledge on many areas that connect to understanding, designing and implementing scenario planning. I would recommend this book to anyone concerned with methodological developments in scenario planning.
– Ted Fuller, Emeritus Professor and UNESCO Chair on Responsible Foresight for Sustainable Development, University of Lincoln, UK